Publications of Novikova, A.

Ürge-Vorsatz D, Eyre N, Graham P, Harvey D, Hertwich E, Jiang Y, et al. Energy End-Use: Buildings. In: Johansson TB, Nakicenovic N, Patwardhan A, Gomez-Echeverri L, editors. Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2012. p. 649-760.

Assessment of bottom-up sectoral and regional mitigation potentials

The greenhouse gas mitigation potential of different economic sectors in three world regions are estimated using a bottom-up approach. These estimates provide updates of the numbers reported in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). This study is part of a larger project aimed at comparing greenhouse gas mitigation potentials from bottom-up and top-down approaches. The sectors included in the analysis are energy supply, transport, industry and the residential and service sector. The mitigation potentials range from 11 to 15GtCO2eq. This is 26-38% of the baseline in 2030 and 47-68% relative to the year 2000. Potential savings are estimated for different cost levels. The total potential at negative costs is estimated at 5-8% relative to the baseline, with the largest share in the residential and service sector and the highest reduction percentage for the transport and industry sectors. These (negative) costs include investment, operation and maintenance and fuel costs and revenues at moderate discount rates of 3-10%. At costs below 100US$/tCO2, the largest potential reductions in absolute terms are estimated in the energy supply sector, while the transport sector has the lowest reduction potential. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Bottom-up assessment of potentials and costs of CO2 emission mitigation in the buildings sector: Insights into the missing elements

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has calculated and shown that, currently, the buildings sector has the largest potential for low-cost carbon dioxide (CO2) mitigation in the short to medium term from application of technological options among the sectors examined, based on bottoms'up studies. The potential estimates, however, were derived with no regard to indirect costs of CO2 mitigation, associated benefits, and non-technological options; these factors might change the magnitude of the potential and the costs associated with its implementation. The question emerges how accurate the indicators of the economic potential are according to the current IPCC method and how much they might change if all factors mentioned were taken into account. While research results are presently not sufficient to fully answer this question and quantitative analyses of non-technological options, transaction costs associated with barriers, and non-energy benefits are scarce and fragmented, this paper makes a first attempt to assess the presently available literature in the field. The paper concludes that the ballpark is right for the figures reporting the cost-effective potentials in the buildings sector; however, these assessments indeed need to be corrected by incurred transaction costs and co-benefits relevant for the particular assessment, as well as the potential of non-technological options. The paper also outlines a research agenda in the area so that a possible next Assessment Report of the IPCC can derive a more accurate estimate of the bottom-up potential of CO2 mitigation. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

Potentials and costs of carbon dioxide mitigation in the world's buildings

Buildings are responsible for over a third of global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. A significant share of these emissions can be avoided cost effectively through improved energy efficiency, while providing the same or higher level of energy services. How large is this emission reduction potential globally and how much will it cost for society to unlock it? This paper provides answers to these questions, presenting the results of bottom-up research conducted for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on the assessment of 80 country- or regional-level mitigation studies throughout the world. First, the paper analyses the findings of these studies in a common framework. Then, it aggregates their results into a global estimate of CO2 mitigation potential. The paper concludes that by 2020 it is possible to cut cost effectively approximately 29% of buildings-related global CO2 emissions, the largest among all sectors reported by the IPCC, representing a 3.2 GtCO2eq. reduction. Developing countries house the largest cost-effective potential with up to 52% of building-level emissions, whereas transition economies and industrialised countries have cost-effective potentials of up to 37% and 25%, respectively. Energy-efficient lighting was identified as the most attractive measure worldwide, in terms of both reduction potential and cost effectiveness. If this potential is realised, the building-related CO2 emissions would stay constant over 2004-2030. These stabilisation levels (if achieved by all other sectors) would cancel about 3°C temperature increase over the projected period of time. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of electricity consumption in the tertiary sector of Hungary

The tertiary sector, which is responsible for about a third of the total national electricity consumption,could be a significant contributor to energy saving and greenhouse gas mitigation targets in Hungary. For evidence-based design of such policies, it is important to understand the reasons behind the dynamics of the electricity consumption and its structure. According to the authors’ investigation, there has been no research-focused, targeted project aimed at electricity monitoring in tertiary sectorbuildings in Hungary as of 2006. To address this gap in knowledge, a research team at the Central European University (CEU) analyzed electricity consumption in 10 tertiary buildings in Hungary in the framework of the European project El-Tertiary (Monitoring Electricity Consumption in the Tertiary Sector). The methods used by CEU included a minimum of 2-weeks on-site measurements of lighting, major electrical appliances such as office equipment, kitchen appliances, heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC), as well as analysis of documents such as energy bills, electricity plans and energy supply contracts. In addition, a survey was conducted among the building managers. The paper details the preliminary results of the project implementation in Hungary. It investigates the electricity consumption and its composition in a set of studied buildings. It also identifies the opportunities for potential technical and behavioural electricity savings and the reasons why they are neglected by building owners or occupiers in Hungary. The results indicate significant potential for energy savings in tertiary sector buildings in Hungary. However, energy consumption is not a high priority among tertiary sector building owners and occupiers in the tertiary sector in Hungary and even the most low-hanging fruits for reducing energy consumption are often not picked up. Instead, renovations and new constructions of educational sector buildings often lead to an increase in energy consumption because more new appliances are purcha sed. Although the modern schools possessed more efficient electronic equipment, including liquid crystal display (LCD) monitors and florescent tubes and compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs), they were also characterized by the highest energy consumption due to the elevated number of computers and office equipment, as well as additional comfort elements, such as air conditioning and vending machines.

Levine M, Ürge-Vorsatz D, Blok K, Geng L, Harvey D, Lang S, et al. Residential and commercial buildings. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press; 2007. p. 53-8.

A new window for a new instrument: Can and will green investment schemes unlock the high efficiency potentials in Eastern Europe?

According to the latest projections, “hot air”, i.e. surplus of greenhouse gas emission (GHG) allowances compared to the Kyoto commitments, will total significantly higher amounts than projected even a few years ago. Since the compliance gaps of Annex I Parties of the Kyoto Protocol are unlikely to be fully filled by credits from the Joint Implementation and the Clean Development Mechanism, this hot air will be in high demand. In order to make these allowances palatable for public opinion, “green investment schemes” (GISs) have been proposed. GISs bring reductions in emissions, using the revenues from allowance sales. The major hypothetical advantage of GISs over flexible mechanisms (FM) is that its potentially diverse architectures could overcome the liabilities of the FMs, and could focus on the highest priorities in emission reduction in the selling countries.Several countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are considering the establishment of GISs in the European Union. Due to the large amount of hot air, GISs could provide a unique window of opportunity in these countries to finance energy-efficiency (EE). The paper first demonstrates why GISs should focus on EE, especially on investment in buildings. Next, the paper warns that the majority of potential GIS architectures will not accommodate EE investments, and therefore it is essential that such a scheme is optimised to leverage EE opportunities already on the drawing board. The paper reviews briefly the potential components of GISs, evaluates them from the perspective on their potential leverage on EE investments, and suggests alternative architectures that can optimise the benefits of GISs for the selling country, as well as the planet.

Kyoto Flexibility Mechanisms in an enlarged EU: will they make a difference?

What potential effect do flexible mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol have on energy efficiency, fuel switching and the development of renewable energy sources for the eight post-communist EU Member States that accessed in 2004? These countries are chief candidates for hosting Joint Implementation (JI) projects and for participating in international emission trading, which may assist the implementation and financing of projects in these target areas. The potentials and barriers to Joint Implementation are reviewed, as well as the conditions under which international emission trading can influence the energy use of the selling country. Different strategies adopted by the host countries towards the application of these instruments, and their impact on sustainable energy development, are examined. The article concludes that the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms may play a positive, but rather limited, role in the sustainable energy development of the region, but the barriers to Joint Implementation may shift the emphasis towards transactions under the framework of international emission trading. If innovative mechanisms are tied to sustainable development goals, this may mobilize the energyefficiency potentials of these countries. An attractive opportunity exists to achieve energy efficiency and emission reductions, utilizing the revenues from allowance sales through ‘green investment’ schemes.

Kyoto flexibility mechanisms in EU accession countries: Will they make a difference?

What potential effect do flexible mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol have on energy efficiency, fuel switching and the development of renewable energy sources for the eight post-communist EU Member States that accessed in 2004? These countries are chief candidates for hosting Joint Implementation (JI) projects and for participating in international emission trading, which may assist the implementation and financing of projects in these target areas. The potentials and barriers to Joint Implementation are reviewed, as well as the conditions under which international emission trading can influence the energy use of the selling country. Different strategies adopted by the host countries towards the application of these instruments, and their impact on sustainable energy development, are examined. The article concludes that the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms may play a positive, but rather limited, role in the sustainable energy development of the region, but the barriers to Joint Implementation may shift the emphasis towards transactions under the framework of international emission trading. If innovative mechanisms are tied to sustainable development goals, this may mobilize the energy-efficiency potentials of these countries. An attractive opportunity exists to achieve energy efficiency and emission reductions, utilizing the revenues from allowance sales through 'green investment' schemes. © 2007 Earthscan.

Kyoto Flexibility Mechanisms in an enlarged EU: will they make a difference?

Many indicators and market evidence suggest that there are still sizable potentials for cost-effective investments into energy efficiency in the eight post-communist new EU member states. However, as long as the governments of these countries still struggle with economic revival and huge budget deficits, it is unlikely that a generous amount of state funds will be directed towards tapping these potentials. Market-based instruments, therefore, offer an attractive alternative to deliver energy efficiency as opposed to hard-to-obtain subsidies.A study commissioned by the European Parliament and executed by Central European University has examined, among others, the role and potential role of new economic instruments in promoting sustainable energy pathways in the new member states. The present paper explores the effect flexible mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol may have on energy efficiency, fuel switch and the development of renewable energy sources in this region. These eight countries are chief candidates for hosting Joint Implementation projects and for participating in International Emission Trading schemes, which may assist the implementation and financing of energy efficiency, renewable energy, and fuel switching projects. The article reviews the potentials and barriers to Joint Implementation, and the conditions under which International Emission Trading can influence the energy use of the selling country. The research has also examined the different strategies the host countries chose to adopt towards the application of these instruments, and the impact of the strategies on short- and medium term energy sustainability. The paper concludes that the flexibility mechanisms may play a positive but rather limited role in the sustainable energy development of the region, and that due to the barriers to JI the emphasis may shift towards emission trading. If emission trading transactions are carried out through innovative mechanisms tied to sustainable development goals, it may play an important role in mobilising the energy efficiency potentials of these countries.